The bubble will always burst.

I shot BR-50 for about 10 years and I loved it. But it had a crack or two in it and eventually down it went. It bothered me at the time because I though RFBR was over. Then ARA came along almost simultaneously to the break up or fall of BR-50, so nothing was really hurt. It was actually better. I see the same thing happening to ARA and I would say that you will see a dramatic downfall in participation over the next two years. Primarily the reason is pressure from several sides that is pushing on ARA that may cause it to implode or actually explode. In any event it won't be the same. ARA is pushing back of course, but seems to be changing course, but it will cause the competing discipline to fail as well.

I see people shooting alternative disciplines that have little to do with ARA, such as ABRA, the long-lived IR 50/50 and the most attended of all which is the informal match. That would have bothered me 20 years ago but looking at the big picture a 100 years from now all people will really know about any of this and the players is the exchange of wealth. It won't be huge and most people won't know where it went or how got there, so it won't matter. There's little exchange of wealth in the act but overall somewhat significant in the equipment and other needed components.

There are huge egos in what amounts to really one game of lobbing an obsolete lead cartridge 50 yards or so and seeing if you can hit something better than the next guy. Of course there are a few different rules to disguise the common thread. This game defines some lives. People think others really care or admire them when most people can't remember who won the last match much less last year.

But due to current pressure the bubble will burst. What will happen? People that want to shoot will shoot something. Most likely it will be a circle of some sort. So when the current egos fight it out and get mutual destruction, just wait for it. There will be more. Then the cycle will start all over but it doesn't matter.

I see less interest in this type of shooting than in thirty years. But it's just a cycle. When one opportunity is lost another presents itself. I'll be glad when something truly new does present itself.
 
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