Bill Calfee
Gun Fool
Pretty amazing....
Your LBK and pistol fool friend, Bill Calfee
Your LBK and pistol fool friend, Bill Calfee
Pretty amazing....
- Thread starter Bill Calfee
- Start date
Bill Calfee
Gun Fool
How do we actually define rimfire accuracy advancement?
How do we actually define rimfire accuracy advancement?
Seekers of rimfire accuracy advancement:
How do we actually define rimfire accuracy advancement?
Your LBK and pistol fool friend, Bill Calfee
How do we actually define rimfire accuracy advancement?
Seekers of rimfire accuracy advancement:
How do we actually define rimfire accuracy advancement?
Your LBK and pistol fool friend, Bill Calfee
A Definition and Analysis of Ten Years of Data
Rimfire can refer to so many shooting disciplines that qualifiers should be used to make sure we don’t get into an apples and oranges scenario.
For the purposes of this post I’m referring to unlimited rimfire benchrest shot in ARA sanctioned matches. It’s a relatively simple matter to use the ARA scoring database to compare the winning season aggregate and create a simple graph.
I favor using season aggregates over a single tournament simply because the dataset is much larger. I believe that indoor chronology is more appropriate to use than outdoors but I collected both datasets just for grins!
Naysayers can pick apart this approach and I’ll agree that attempting to select an approach to define “accuracy advancement” may be a personal preference. I’m offering both an approach to defining rimfire accuracy advancement as well as data that suggest rimfire benchrest accuracy has advanced.
The dataset I’ve generated and am displaying here shows tabular and graphic displays for both indoor and outdoor environments.
Here’s some observations to chew on:
Indoors - For six years between 2013 and 2018 the winning season aggregates averaged 2329 and ranged from 2300 to 2358.
Then, beginning in 2019 and continue through 2022 aggs averaged 2380 and ranged from 2345 to 2400.
That’s a 50 point increase in season aggregate averages which suggests a significant advancement in rimfire accuracy. Maybe more importantly, there’s been a steady increase in winning season aggs from 2019 to 2022; with scores increasing from 2345 to 2400.
Outdoors - The winning outdoor season aggs follow the same general trend lines as the indoor aggs which further supports my conclusion that the RFBR community is steadily advancing rimfire accuracy.
Rimfire can refer to so many shooting disciplines that qualifiers should be used to make sure we don’t get into an apples and oranges scenario.
For the purposes of this post I’m referring to unlimited rimfire benchrest shot in ARA sanctioned matches. It’s a relatively simple matter to use the ARA scoring database to compare the winning season aggregate and create a simple graph.
I favor using season aggregates over a single tournament simply because the dataset is much larger. I believe that indoor chronology is more appropriate to use than outdoors but I collected both datasets just for grins!
Naysayers can pick apart this approach and I’ll agree that attempting to select an approach to define “accuracy advancement” may be a personal preference. I’m offering both an approach to defining rimfire accuracy advancement as well as data that suggest rimfire benchrest accuracy has advanced.
The dataset I’ve generated and am displaying here shows tabular and graphic displays for both indoor and outdoor environments.
Here’s some observations to chew on:
Indoors - For six years between 2013 and 2018 the winning season aggregates averaged 2329 and ranged from 2300 to 2358.
Then, beginning in 2019 and continue through 2022 aggs averaged 2380 and ranged from 2345 to 2400.
That’s a 50 point increase in season aggregate averages which suggests a significant advancement in rimfire accuracy. Maybe more importantly, there’s been a steady increase in winning season aggs from 2019 to 2022; with scores increasing from 2345 to 2400.
Outdoors - The winning outdoor season aggs follow the same general trend lines as the indoor aggs which further supports my conclusion that the RFBR community is steadily advancing rimfire accuracy.
Bill Calfee
Gun Fool
Friend NormFlynn;
Friend NormFlynn:
Thank you for going to the trouble of compiling all that data...
But that doesn't address what happened at the recent ARA Indoor Nationals.....I'm sorry...
But thank you again anyway..
Your LBK and pistol fool friend, Bill Calfee
Friend NormFlynn:
Thank you for going to the trouble of compiling all that data...
But that doesn't address what happened at the recent ARA Indoor Nationals.....I'm sorry...
But thank you again anyway..
Your LBK and pistol fool friend, Bill Calfee
Norm, since we have not seen anyone try to define how to measure the advancement of rimfire accuracy, this would seem to be a very analytic approach to determining if accuracy, as measured by match-winning aggs, have improved over the past several years. It would seem the data support that accuracy has advanced! Great job with the data, and now, we can focus on the real question. Since we have seen accuracy improve, what are the potential reasons for that improvement? I propose that one potential answer could be related to the shift away from Eley ammo to Lapua, as we have seen in the recent past. Also, the improvements in barrel manufacturing could also be another potential reason.
Nice work with your analysis!
Tombstone
Bill Calfee
Gun Fool
Friend Tombstone
________________________________
Friend Tombstone:
Mr Flynn's data is most interesting...
But................
It does not address what happened at the recent ARA Indoor Nationals...I'm sorry.....
And that's what this thread is about...OK...
Your LBK and pistol fool friend, Bill Calfee
________________________________
Friend Tombstone:
Mr Flynn's data is most interesting...
But................
It does not address what happened at the recent ARA Indoor Nationals...I'm sorry.....
And that's what this thread is about...OK...
Your LBK and pistol fool friend, Bill Calfee
Bill, this post seems to talk about defining rimfire accuracy advancement, which is why Norm posted his data analysis here. Sorry if it's in the incorrect thread.
Tombstone
Last edited:
Bill Calfee
Gun Fool
Friend Tombstone
____________________________________
Friend Tombstone:
The word "actually" is the key word in my post..
______________
How do we actually define rimfire accuracy advancement?
Seekers of rimfire accuracy advancement:
How do we actually define rimfire accuracy advancement?
______________________________
Friend Tombstone, I'm a charter member of contemporary RFBR, 34 years now...
I've watched scores grow throughout those 34 years.....
But what happened at the recent ARA Indoor Nationals is completely out of context with that gradual 34 years of rimfire accuracy growth.
This thread is about what "actually" happened at the recent Indoor......OK....
Your LBK and pistol fool friend, Bill Calfee
____________________________________
Friend Tombstone:
The word "actually" is the key word in my post..
______________
How do we actually define rimfire accuracy advancement?
Seekers of rimfire accuracy advancement:
How do we actually define rimfire accuracy advancement?
______________________________
Friend Tombstone, I'm a charter member of contemporary RFBR, 34 years now...
I've watched scores grow throughout those 34 years.....
But what happened at the recent ARA Indoor Nationals is completely out of context with that gradual 34 years of rimfire accuracy growth.
This thread is about what "actually" happened at the recent Indoor......OK....
Your LBK and pistol fool friend, Bill Calfee
Bullseye-T
New member
The rest of the story?
Mr. Calfee:
I was there and the biggest thing I noticed was on Friday it was in the mid-60's outside. While Saturday was cold and rainy and Sunday was colder, both in the 30s-40s. The barn is not sealed completely with light being able to be seen between the rafters above the walls. That's the difference between the PSL and the ARA tournament.
Mr. Calfee:
I was there and the biggest thing I noticed was on Friday it was in the mid-60's outside. While Saturday was cold and rainy and Sunday was colder, both in the 30s-40s. The barn is not sealed completely with light being able to be seen between the rafters above the walls. That's the difference between the PSL and the ARA tournament.
Bill Calfee
Gun Fool
Friend Bullseye-T
_______________________
Friend Bullseye-T:
We appreciate the info.....thank you...
Your LBK and pistol fool friend, Bill Calfee
_______________________
Friend Bullseye-T:
We appreciate the info.....thank you...
Your LBK and pistol fool friend, Bill Calfee
Moving from Definition to an Explanation of 2022 Tournament
Day before yesterday, I responded to the question (#2 post on this thread) with my opinion (#3 post) “How do we actually define rimfire accuracy advancement?”
Since there’s no definitive authority to dictate how we actually define rimfire accuracy advancement we can make our own definition, I suggested using each year’s winning SEASON aggregate as the metric to demonstrate that we had, indeed, advanced accuracy in both outdoor and indoor environments. To me, using aggregate scores in a single tournament (Indoor Nationals) doesn’t provide adequate data to determine whether accuracy has advanced . X-count is an excellent way to express accuracy (or advancement) but we’ve only got one year of X-count data thanks to a 2022 rule change.
In a followup (#4 post) the thread took a bit of a turn from defining accuracy advancement to “address(ing) what happened at the recent ARA Indoor Nationals... “
Against my better judgement I’ve decided to weigh in on this question. I launched another data review to address what happened at the 2022 Indoor Tournament. Two things occurred at this tournament that are noteworthy: first, the existing aggregate record was shattered by two competitors and equaled by a third; second, the top six places were won shooting rifles built around the Holeshot 2500X action. The scores suggest more than just incremental gains in accuracy!! Is there an obvious explanation for why? In an attempt to unravel this mystery I reviewed the last five years of Indoor Nationals equipment, looking at actions, barrels and ammunition used by the top-ten finishers. What could have changed between 2021 and 2022?
The gains achieved in 2022 emphasize the importance of equipment/ammo but what can be said about the shooters who finished in the top-ten. Reviewing the previous four years might help to address the 2022 finishes. Are we witnessing a trend or an anomaly. Either way it’s harder to argue that a new benchmark has been set in ARA competition.
The dataset I’ve chosen to study includes five years of Indoor Nationals results for top-ten finishers, i.e., fifty data points in total.
Friend Timo weighed in on another thread “Now we are cooking with gas 2” with his comments, “I know Bills blood pressure goes up if we pick up only AMMO, but I have seen in my small world what happens when someone finds "double killer ammo" from batch tests.
People find killer ammo with hard work, but when someone finds "double killer ammo" he/she is difficult to keep out from podium with same equipments & shooting skills as before.”
The data I reviewed supports Timo’s comments but there’s more to the story than just ammo considerations. Let’s look at each of the equipment/ammo issues as well as taking a look at the top-ten competitors over this five year timeframe.
Action - You might be surprised the learn that the last five years of top-ten finishes show an even distribution of action designs, i.e., PAS 25 and SAP 25.
The breakdown by manufacturer is: Turbo 15, 10-X 10, 2500X 17, Trident 1, Suhl 5, Swindlehurst 1 and Gann 1.
This dataset not only shows equivalence between PAS and SAP designs but no significant difference between Turbo and 2500X actions.
Note that these data do not differentiate between two and three lug actions for either Turbo or 10-X but we do see that at least 24 actions are two lug design (2500X, Suhl, Swindlehurst and Gann).
Barrel - Data for barrel manufacturers is more revealing (at least by manufacturer, not design). Shilen barrels account for 31 top-ten finishes, Muller 14, Broughton 4 and Hart 1.
Top-ten finishes favor Shilen barrels over Muller but seem to suggest that, even if Shilen barrels offer an edge, competitors can achieve a top-ten finish using barrels from various manufactures and (probably) designs.
Ammo - As Timo points out, ammunition is extremely important to a top-ten finish. Lapua has dominated over the last three years with 27 top-ten finishes versus Eley with only three. In 2018 and 2019, Eley, with 14 top-ten finishes, proved to be more effective than Lapua with 6.
Remember Timo’s phrase: “double killer ammo”. You got to shoot the very best ammo to win indoors and Lapua is providing more good ammo than Eley. It’s worthwhile noting that it’s up to the competitor to source the double killer ammo - without the consistency of ammo you’re just not going to finish strong at a national level.
Competitor - Over the last five years of Indoor Nationals a total of 37 competitors have finished in the top-ten. Only eight of these 37 placed in the top-ten more than once. Five of the eight finished in the top-ten twice, two finished three times and only one finished in the top-ten four times.
These data, at least to me, prove that sanctioned ARA is incredibly competitive. Thankfully, ARA provides a powerful database that allows easy data extraction to do these little number crunching exercises.
Rimfire Benchrest shooting requires a great deal of preparation. Component selection required to build a winning rifle is important and how these components are assembled by the gunsmith is, arguably, more important than the choice of components. Once the gunsmith hands the rifle to the competitor it’s his or her responsibility to maintain the rifle for optimum performance.
Assuming a shooter has adequately prepared for the big matches it comes down to how well he/she can execute during the tournament. Bench technique is critical to shooting consistent scores and, especially at the national events, the competitor must have nerves of steel. Pressure to perform is highest at national events.
Once the preparation is complete and the shooting begins, success becomes a “mental game”. Every shot counts and dropping the first shot on the first card can be devastating. The true champions make real-time corrections to their game plan. Watching a card develop through a spotting scope offers valuable insights into how the top shooters foul their barrels, shoot sighters to prepare for record bulls and make necessary corrections when bullets wander within the 100 ring and don’t wipe out the center (X) dot.
Finally, Addressing the Question - “what happened at the recent ARA Indoor Nationals ...“
After extracting and reviewing data from ten years of indoor/outdoor season aggregate scores and five years of indoor national tournaments I’d hoped that answering this question would be obvious. Unfortunately, the answer is not obvious - or is it?
It’s imperative that you have adequate data to make a conclusion and your experimental design should aspire to remove bias from the study. The dataset for the 2022 Indoor Nationals is just too small to come to a definitive conclusion on anything other than choice of ammunition.
Explaining why the top six tournament finishers were shooting with 2500X actions or why the top seven shot spring around pin designs is not obvious. It just happened ... it may be the beginning of a new era where SAP design dominates but I doubt it. Time will tell. There is enough data to suggest that the SAP and PAS designs, when in the right hands, are equally capable of delivering top-ten finishes in ARA Indoor National Tournaments.
I prefer to believe that the top shooters (all of the top-ten) had done the proper preparation, i.e., shot rifles that met the highest standards, sourced and shot the very best ammo, used the best bench technique making real time corrections and didn’t crater to the pressure of the day.
Perhaps the 2022 tournament results are an enigma (mystery). It doesn’t really matter but it does prove Friend Calfee’s opinion that you can never trust a rimfire, it’ll let you down every time.
Day before yesterday, I responded to the question (#2 post on this thread) with my opinion (#3 post) “How do we actually define rimfire accuracy advancement?”
Since there’s no definitive authority to dictate how we actually define rimfire accuracy advancement we can make our own definition, I suggested using each year’s winning SEASON aggregate as the metric to demonstrate that we had, indeed, advanced accuracy in both outdoor and indoor environments. To me, using aggregate scores in a single tournament (Indoor Nationals) doesn’t provide adequate data to determine whether accuracy has advanced . X-count is an excellent way to express accuracy (or advancement) but we’ve only got one year of X-count data thanks to a 2022 rule change.
In a followup (#4 post) the thread took a bit of a turn from defining accuracy advancement to “address(ing) what happened at the recent ARA Indoor Nationals... “
Against my better judgement I’ve decided to weigh in on this question. I launched another data review to address what happened at the 2022 Indoor Tournament. Two things occurred at this tournament that are noteworthy: first, the existing aggregate record was shattered by two competitors and equaled by a third; second, the top six places were won shooting rifles built around the Holeshot 2500X action. The scores suggest more than just incremental gains in accuracy!! Is there an obvious explanation for why? In an attempt to unravel this mystery I reviewed the last five years of Indoor Nationals equipment, looking at actions, barrels and ammunition used by the top-ten finishers. What could have changed between 2021 and 2022?
The gains achieved in 2022 emphasize the importance of equipment/ammo but what can be said about the shooters who finished in the top-ten. Reviewing the previous four years might help to address the 2022 finishes. Are we witnessing a trend or an anomaly. Either way it’s harder to argue that a new benchmark has been set in ARA competition.
The dataset I’ve chosen to study includes five years of Indoor Nationals results for top-ten finishers, i.e., fifty data points in total.
Friend Timo weighed in on another thread “Now we are cooking with gas 2” with his comments, “I know Bills blood pressure goes up if we pick up only AMMO, but I have seen in my small world what happens when someone finds "double killer ammo" from batch tests.
People find killer ammo with hard work, but when someone finds "double killer ammo" he/she is difficult to keep out from podium with same equipments & shooting skills as before.”
The data I reviewed supports Timo’s comments but there’s more to the story than just ammo considerations. Let’s look at each of the equipment/ammo issues as well as taking a look at the top-ten competitors over this five year timeframe.
Action - You might be surprised the learn that the last five years of top-ten finishes show an even distribution of action designs, i.e., PAS 25 and SAP 25.
The breakdown by manufacturer is: Turbo 15, 10-X 10, 2500X 17, Trident 1, Suhl 5, Swindlehurst 1 and Gann 1.
This dataset not only shows equivalence between PAS and SAP designs but no significant difference between Turbo and 2500X actions.
Note that these data do not differentiate between two and three lug actions for either Turbo or 10-X but we do see that at least 24 actions are two lug design (2500X, Suhl, Swindlehurst and Gann).
Barrel - Data for barrel manufacturers is more revealing (at least by manufacturer, not design). Shilen barrels account for 31 top-ten finishes, Muller 14, Broughton 4 and Hart 1.
Top-ten finishes favor Shilen barrels over Muller but seem to suggest that, even if Shilen barrels offer an edge, competitors can achieve a top-ten finish using barrels from various manufactures and (probably) designs.
Ammo - As Timo points out, ammunition is extremely important to a top-ten finish. Lapua has dominated over the last three years with 27 top-ten finishes versus Eley with only three. In 2018 and 2019, Eley, with 14 top-ten finishes, proved to be more effective than Lapua with 6.
Remember Timo’s phrase: “double killer ammo”. You got to shoot the very best ammo to win indoors and Lapua is providing more good ammo than Eley. It’s worthwhile noting that it’s up to the competitor to source the double killer ammo - without the consistency of ammo you’re just not going to finish strong at a national level.
Competitor - Over the last five years of Indoor Nationals a total of 37 competitors have finished in the top-ten. Only eight of these 37 placed in the top-ten more than once. Five of the eight finished in the top-ten twice, two finished three times and only one finished in the top-ten four times.
These data, at least to me, prove that sanctioned ARA is incredibly competitive. Thankfully, ARA provides a powerful database that allows easy data extraction to do these little number crunching exercises.
Rimfire Benchrest shooting requires a great deal of preparation. Component selection required to build a winning rifle is important and how these components are assembled by the gunsmith is, arguably, more important than the choice of components. Once the gunsmith hands the rifle to the competitor it’s his or her responsibility to maintain the rifle for optimum performance.
Assuming a shooter has adequately prepared for the big matches it comes down to how well he/she can execute during the tournament. Bench technique is critical to shooting consistent scores and, especially at the national events, the competitor must have nerves of steel. Pressure to perform is highest at national events.
Once the preparation is complete and the shooting begins, success becomes a “mental game”. Every shot counts and dropping the first shot on the first card can be devastating. The true champions make real-time corrections to their game plan. Watching a card develop through a spotting scope offers valuable insights into how the top shooters foul their barrels, shoot sighters to prepare for record bulls and make necessary corrections when bullets wander within the 100 ring and don’t wipe out the center (X) dot.
Finally, Addressing the Question - “what happened at the recent ARA Indoor Nationals ...“
After extracting and reviewing data from ten years of indoor/outdoor season aggregate scores and five years of indoor national tournaments I’d hoped that answering this question would be obvious. Unfortunately, the answer is not obvious - or is it?
It’s imperative that you have adequate data to make a conclusion and your experimental design should aspire to remove bias from the study. The dataset for the 2022 Indoor Nationals is just too small to come to a definitive conclusion on anything other than choice of ammunition.
Explaining why the top six tournament finishers were shooting with 2500X actions or why the top seven shot spring around pin designs is not obvious. It just happened ... it may be the beginning of a new era where SAP design dominates but I doubt it. Time will tell. There is enough data to suggest that the SAP and PAS designs, when in the right hands, are equally capable of delivering top-ten finishes in ARA Indoor National Tournaments.
I prefer to believe that the top shooters (all of the top-ten) had done the proper preparation, i.e., shot rifles that met the highest standards, sourced and shot the very best ammo, used the best bench technique making real time corrections and didn’t crater to the pressure of the day.
Perhaps the 2022 tournament results are an enigma (mystery). It doesn’t really matter but it does prove Friend Calfee’s opinion that you can never trust a rimfire, it’ll let you down every time.
Bill Calfee
Gun Fool
Friend NormFlynn:
Friend NormFlynn:
Friend NormFlynn:
I forgot to thank you for going to the trouble of compiling all that data......I count 27 paragraphs....
Mr Flynn, I'm not a writer and anyone who's read my book quickly understands this..
So I don't possess the "bona fides" to be critical of a talented writer such as yourself...
But I'm going to say something anyway, at the expense of looking silly...
Your data is so long that by the time I got near the bottom I'd forgot what you said near the beginning.....
Again, I do not possess the bona fides to make comments like this...so I apologize...
I believe it was William Shakespeare who said, "Brevity is the soul of wit".
Anyway, thank you again for going to the trouble of compiling all those stats and posting them here on CYA..
Your LBK and pistol fool friend, Bill Calfee
Friend NormFlynn:
Friend NormFlynn:
I forgot to thank you for going to the trouble of compiling all that data......I count 27 paragraphs....
Mr Flynn, I'm not a writer and anyone who's read my book quickly understands this..
So I don't possess the "bona fides" to be critical of a talented writer such as yourself...
But I'm going to say something anyway, at the expense of looking silly...
Your data is so long that by the time I got near the bottom I'd forgot what you said near the beginning.....
Again, I do not possess the bona fides to make comments like this...so I apologize...
I believe it was William Shakespeare who said, "Brevity is the soul of wit".
Anyway, thank you again for going to the trouble of compiling all those stats and posting them here on CYA..
Your LBK and pistol fool friend, Bill Calfee
Tony K Harper
Active member
Data
Here's the raw data for what competitors intended to shot ...
Actions - 2500X 32, Gann 8, Suhl 2, Swindlehurst 1, Trident 4, Turbo 21, Vudoo 5, 10-X 8
Barrels - Benchmark 3, Broughton 1, Hart 1, Muller 32, Other 7, Shilen 41
Triggers - BixNAndy 41, Suhl, 1, Flavio Fare 19, Jewell 11, Other 2, PQP 2, Walther 8
Stock - Factory (?) 1, IvanHoe 2, Lidgard 15, McMillan 20, Myers 2, Other 8, Pippin 1, PWC 32, Self 2, TM 2
Scopes - Athlon 1, B&L 1, Kahles 5, Leupold 4, March 9, Nightforce 42, Other 6, PWC (?) 1, Schmidt & Bender 2, Sightron 12, Weaver 1
Gunsmith - Blevins 1, Brock 1, Bumgarner 2, Calfee 3, Gann 8, Gorham 13, IvanHoe 2, Kerley 3, Langley 2, Other 11, Patterson, 5, Penrod 7, Self 5, Shilen 1, Stiller 12, Wilkinson 4, Vudoo 1
Ammunition - Eley 24, Lapua 61
I post this here to keep it from being lost.
TKH
Here's the raw data for what competitors intended to shot ...
Actions - 2500X 32, Gann 8, Suhl 2, Swindlehurst 1, Trident 4, Turbo 21, Vudoo 5, 10-X 8
Barrels - Benchmark 3, Broughton 1, Hart 1, Muller 32, Other 7, Shilen 41
Triggers - BixNAndy 41, Suhl, 1, Flavio Fare 19, Jewell 11, Other 2, PQP 2, Walther 8
Stock - Factory (?) 1, IvanHoe 2, Lidgard 15, McMillan 20, Myers 2, Other 8, Pippin 1, PWC 32, Self 2, TM 2
Scopes - Athlon 1, B&L 1, Kahles 5, Leupold 4, March 9, Nightforce 42, Other 6, PWC (?) 1, Schmidt & Bender 2, Sightron 12, Weaver 1
Gunsmith - Blevins 1, Brock 1, Bumgarner 2, Calfee 3, Gann 8, Gorham 13, IvanHoe 2, Kerley 3, Langley 2, Other 11, Patterson, 5, Penrod 7, Self 5, Shilen 1, Stiller 12, Wilkinson 4, Vudoo 1
Ammunition - Eley 24, Lapua 61
I post this here to keep it from being lost.
TKH
Last edited:
Bill Calfee
Gun Fool
"Brevity is the soul of wit".
__________________________________
Friend TDX:
Yes, William Shakespeare said, "Brevity is the soul of wit".
Excellent.....the "correct" summation of the equipment in a very brief, concise rendering...
Your LBK and pistol fool friend, Bill Calfee
__________________________________
Friend TDX:
Yes, William Shakespeare said, "Brevity is the soul of wit".
Excellent.....the "correct" summation of the equipment in a very brief, concise rendering...
Your LBK and pistol fool friend, Bill Calfee